Posted by: kathandroger | April 20, 2012

Hollande on pole.

So after many months, we are almost at the first round of the presidential elections. There are 10 candidates, covering the whole spectrum of political allegiances. Whilst there are only 2 with any chance of winning, the performance of some of the other candidates is critical. Sarko and Hollande are virtually neck and neck in the polls, with around 27/28% each, followed by the extreme right (Le Pen), the extreme left (Melenchon) and the middle (Bayrou). The important thing is how the votes of these 3 (in the 10-15% range) are distributed in the second round. At the moment it would seem that Hollande will gain a comfortable victory with 55-58% in the second round…

There are still lots of unknowns – a potential abstention rate of 30%, as well as much indecision. So the victory can still be anybody’s, thought the fairly bland and dull M. Hollande would seem to be leading by a short head. 

Campaigning officially ends at midnight tonight and no more opinion polls will be allowed until after Sunday’s vote.

Possibly the most interesting feature of a relatively tedious campaign has been the emergence of the far left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon. He’s come from nowhere to be vying for 3rd place with Marine Le Pen. It was assumed that a hard leftie could never do very well in the presidentials, but M. M is proving that untrue. He’s fiery, charismatic and knows how to get a crowd going. In this day of stage managed middle of the road campaigning it has been quite a breath of fresh air! 


Responses

  1. Hello Kath and Roger!! Been reading your blog with great interest – sounds like all is going generally well! and you’re enjoying life. I guess some of the things we’re doing are similar but without the good weather (now living in the far far North). Selfishly trying to get in touch with you as was hoping you may be able to supply a reference if required. Hope you don’t mind the intrusion. Philly (ex-Blandford)


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