Posted by: kathandroger | March 4, 2012

Who will be the next President?

There’s less than 50 days to go to the first round of the Presidentials and it is still far from clear who is going to win the next 5 year term. It is a 2 horse race, with Francois Hollande still a nose ahead in the polls. Sarko has had a bad week, having been heckled and had eggs thrown at him down in the Basque country and the campaign has become increasingly negative and aggressive. Things actually got so bad for the current president that he had to seek refuge in a bar to escape all the furore. Despite the general antipathy towards Sarko, Hollande is failing to capture the country’s imagination. He should be romping home, but he’s not. What is more, all the Euro big wigs (who happen to be on the right), have backed Sarko and refused to meet Hollande!

There could still be a few twists and turns in the campaign. For one, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right Front National still is 48 endorsements short of the 500 she needs to be able to run in the elections. She has about 10 days to persuade 48 mayors to back her – it is not certain they will. Le Pen is currently running 3rd, with around 18% of the vote. The question is – where would these votes go if she wasn’t able to stand? Then there is the question of abstentions. People feel pretty disaffected by politics and the presidential campaign. There is the thought that many could abstain, causing great uncertainty as to the final outcome.

7 more weeks of speeches, protests, eggs, flour and endless TV debates with Laurence Ferrari; by the time it has finished will most of the country have lost interest? And will it really make all that much difference in the current economic climate who wins?


  1. The facists always play the can’t get enough votes card, it comes with the territory of lieing about everything! Though if they do run they will split the right and Hollande with all the carisma of eg doll may get in. Love Jeremy Paxman XX

  2. Dear Jeremy,
    how nice to hear from you! Despite everything I still have a sneaking feeling Carla may not have to move house after all. Has a bit of a feel of the UK 1992 Kinnock defeat when everyone said he would win. People didn’t believe in him as a leader of the country, just as they don’t in Hollande…
    on verra…

    • I remember it well – “Things can only get better lol” Love Jeremy

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